Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
