Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
