Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor
Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.
He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.
Set aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.
Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.